This research delves into the intricate relationship between macroeconomic factors and the UK housing market, exploring whether these connections vary under different economic regimes.

Notably, our findings highlight the pivotal role of house price growth as a leading indicator and unveil two distinct economic regimes: periods of high and low volatility. As of the first quarter of 2023, the UK is transitioning into a high volatility period.

Our research underscores the importance of vigilance during these high volatility phases, offering valuable insights into the future of the UK housing market and indicating a heightened likelihood of an impending economic downturn.

Read the full article on Macroeconomic Variables and Volatility Regimes as Determinants of the House Price Index: A Case for the UK