{"id":4314,"date":"2023-03-02T20:42:30","date_gmt":"2023-03-02T19:42:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/npl-markets-credit-risk-monitor-united-kingdom-2\/"},"modified":"2024-03-12T18:40:46","modified_gmt":"2024-03-12T17:40:46","slug":"npl-markets-credit-risk-monitor-united-kingdom-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/npl-markets-credit-risk-monitor-united-kingdom-2\/","title":{"rendered":"NPL Markets Credit Risk Monitor: United Kingdom"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In December, the Daily Telegraph wrote on the back of high inflation and the cost-of-living crisis in the United Kingdom \u201cGet ready for the weirdest recession in history\u201d. In January, the IMF predicted negative real GDP growth for the UK in 2023 of -0.6% which raises expectations for a material increase in non-performing loans (NPLs). In this note we review recent credit risk indicators beyond the NPL ratio using a newly released data application from the NPL Markets analytics platform.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>While there is a clear expectation for increased credit risk, the actual indicators available thus far have not yet shown a substantial deterioration in loan performance. Interest rates on residential mortgages are at a 10-year high and more that 75% of mortgage borrowers will face an interest reset in the next two years increasing the pressure on household finances that are already stretched. Loan write-offs on UK mortgage and corporate loans overall are stable for now, but defaults on business loan guaranteed by the government under a COVID-19 scheme continue to rise and vary widely by originator. Business insolvencies in Europe in 2022 have risen sharply whereas they were stable in the UK.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2023-03-01_UK_credit-risk-monitor-3.pdf\">Read the full article <span style=\"color: #ed610c;\">here<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; In December, the Daily Telegraph wrote on the back of high inflation and the cost-of-living crisis in the United Kingdom \u201cGet ready for the weirdest recession in history\u201d. In January, the IMF predicted negative real GDP growth for the UK in 2023 of -0.6% which raises expectations for a material increase in non-performing loans&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":230404244,"featured_media":2940,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[1420],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-neues"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nplmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/shutterstock_1078854536_small_scaled_1_b5391186c9.webp?fit=1600%2C673&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":false,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/peuIXD-17A","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/230404244"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4314"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4319,"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4314\/revisions\/4319"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nplmarkets.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}